Dec. 8: Black swan
Once there was a swan named Bob.
Bob was black.
The police shot him.
It was a coincidence.
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Here is what Wikipedia tells me about black swan theory:
"The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight."
The term was coined by the Lebanese-American statistician, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who defined major events such as World War I, the 2001 terrorist attacks, and the dissolution of the Soviet Union as black swan events. Nobody could see them coming but, of course, plenty of people claimed they did. This is the great thing about being a conspiracy theorist. You get to cloak your grief and outrage behind a mask of cynicism. You can say: "If people only listened to me, September 11 probably never would have happened." Right, dumbass. You knew it was going to happen on 9/11, eh? Shut up, clown.
*
9/11 probably was a black swan event. I didn't see it coming. I knew terrorism would come to America eventually but I sure didn't know that it was going to happen on the morning of Sept. 11, 2001 either. I don't think President Bush knew it either and anyone who says he did is an idiot.
Another black swan event is the advent of the Internet. The Internet has changed everything. I bet network television programmers hate it. Now anyone can be a TV star.
*
The sinking of the Titanic was surely a black swan event. In 1997, a movie about Titanic quickly became the highest grossing movie of all time. This was probably a black swan event too.
*
Surely the biggest black swan event, at least as far as humans are concerned, was the discovery that fossil fuels could be extracted from the ground, refined in high-tech factories, and that used to run engines. Soon, the whole world was crazy for fossil fuel. We became a planet of addicts. Wars are probably being fought for it.
In about a hundred years, all the fossil fuel will be gone and that will be another black swan event. I hope we harness solar power by then. Otherwise, we're screwed.
Bob was black.
The police shot him.
It was a coincidence.
*
Here is what Wikipedia tells me about black swan theory:
"The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight."
The term was coined by the Lebanese-American statistician, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who defined major events such as World War I, the 2001 terrorist attacks, and the dissolution of the Soviet Union as black swan events. Nobody could see them coming but, of course, plenty of people claimed they did. This is the great thing about being a conspiracy theorist. You get to cloak your grief and outrage behind a mask of cynicism. You can say: "If people only listened to me, September 11 probably never would have happened." Right, dumbass. You knew it was going to happen on 9/11, eh? Shut up, clown.
*
9/11 probably was a black swan event. I didn't see it coming. I knew terrorism would come to America eventually but I sure didn't know that it was going to happen on the morning of Sept. 11, 2001 either. I don't think President Bush knew it either and anyone who says he did is an idiot.
Another black swan event is the advent of the Internet. The Internet has changed everything. I bet network television programmers hate it. Now anyone can be a TV star.
*
The sinking of the Titanic was surely a black swan event. In 1997, a movie about Titanic quickly became the highest grossing movie of all time. This was probably a black swan event too.
*
Surely the biggest black swan event, at least as far as humans are concerned, was the discovery that fossil fuels could be extracted from the ground, refined in high-tech factories, and that used to run engines. Soon, the whole world was crazy for fossil fuel. We became a planet of addicts. Wars are probably being fought for it.
In about a hundred years, all the fossil fuel will be gone and that will be another black swan event. I hope we harness solar power by then. Otherwise, we're screwed.
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